How the calculator works
Delivered share = confirmation rate × delivery rate
Real ad cost = cost per order in ads ÷ delivered share
Then return costs are added: every confirmed order that wasn't accepted cost you shipping both ways, and the successful orders have to carry that cost.
Example: 60 cost per order in ads, 75% confirmation, 80% delivery. Only 60% of orders arrive, so the real ad cost per delivered order = 60 ÷ 0.6 = 100, which is 67% higher than Ads Manager shows.
Why ROAS misleads COD stores
If the pixel fires a purchase when the order is placed, every fake or cancelled order counts as a sale. A campaign at ROAS 3 in Ads Manager might really be ROAS 1.8. Judge campaigns with this calculator, and track confirmation rate per campaign, because some audiences order a lot and accept little.
How to raise your delivery rate
- Call to confirm within an hour of the order; every hour of delay lowers confirmation.
- Send a WhatsApp message with order details and the expected delivery date.
- Avoid exaggerated ads that attract impulse orders that never get accepted.
- Exclude regions with high refusal rates from targeting when possible.
For the full picture read Cash-on-Delivery Store Ads: Confirmation Rates, Returns and the Real Cost per Order.